ConvexPi

Predicted div yield next month

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DivYieldSTValue· Accounting data

Using CRSP distributions, keep only distcd beginning in 12 and if the third digit of distcd is 3, 4, or 5. Also keep only if stock paid a dividend in the last 12 months. Define Ediv1 = div 2 months ago if distcd's 3rd digit is 0, 1, or 3. Define Ediv1 = div 5 months ago if the distcd 3rd digit is 4. Define Ediv = div 11 months ago if the distcd 3rd digit is 5. Define Edy1 as Ediv1/abs(prc). Finally, discretize Edy1 to smooth around the huge mass at 0 as follows: DivYieldST = 0 if Edy1 = 0, 1 if Edy is between 0 and 0.005, 2 if Edy1 is between 0.005 and 0.010, and 3 if Edy > 0.010.

IS Sharpe (1926–1978)

0.909

+7.6% p.a.

OOS Sharpe (1979–2024)

1.420

+7.5% p.a.

Sharpe decay

-56.2%

(IS − OOS) / |IS|

IS vol

8.3%

annualized

Cumulative return (last 40 years, monthly)

+1698%
1984-012024-12

Publication details

AuthorsLitzenberger and Ramaswamy
PaperLitzenberger and Ramaswamy (1979)
JournalJournal of Financial Economics
Publication year1979
Original sample1936–1977
IS T-statistic6.30
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